Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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