The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.