Trial-heat model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.5%. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points lower.

The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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