Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.5%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.