Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.