Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Convention bump model
The Convention bump model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.