Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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