The Primary model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.