Pennsylvania: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Emerson*Emerson* poll
EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
EmersonEmerson poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 25 and August 28. The sample size was 800 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. In comparison to her numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.