Results of a new poll carried out by Franklin & Marshall were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29. A total of 496 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. In comparison to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.