Ohio: Negligible lead for Clinton in new CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19. A total of 997 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.2%. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.