New PPP poll: Clinton holds small advantage
By PPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 28. A total of 881 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the PPP poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 0.6 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.
