New Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Keys to the White House model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
The Keys to the White House model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.