Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead
The Leading indicators model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.