Results of a new national poll administered by LA Times were spread. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 23 to August 29, among a random sample of 2500 participants. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 46.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 5.1 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 5.1 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.