Latest Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.