Latest Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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