Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.6 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% and Trump 46.6% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.