Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, you should rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 54.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.