Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 56.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.4%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, one should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.
The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.