FOX poll: Trump holds slight advantage
By FOX published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via phone from August 28 to August 30 among 1011 participants. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump is currently at 46.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the FOX poll Trump's poll average is 6.7 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 6.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.
