Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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