Fair model: Trump is in the lead

The Fair model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 5.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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