DeSart model: Trump with small lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. In comparison to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.4 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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