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Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead


The Bio-index model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 59.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 40.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 5.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Bio-index index model.

The Bio-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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