538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.