Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.