Trump leads by 6 points in new FOX poll
FOX released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% will cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was in the field between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 1011 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump. In the latest FOX poll on August 9 Clinton received 55.7%, while Trump received only 44.3%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 47.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the FOX poll Trump's poll average is 6.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.8 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is significant.