Results of a new national poll carried out by LA Times were spread. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 23 to August 29, among a random sample of 2500 participants. The error margin is +/-4.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 47.2%. This value is 4.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 5.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.