Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Keys to the White House index model
The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 54.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.