Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.