Primary model: Trump with small lead
The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.
The Primary model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.