Franklin & Marshall published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29 among 496 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-5.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.