Franklin & Marshall published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29. A total of 496 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. In the latest Franklin & Marshall poll on August 30 Clinton obtained only 43.7%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 54.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.