Results of a new poll administered by NBC-WSJ-Marist were announced. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 3 and August 7. The sample size was 834 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 2.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.