Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll shows Trump trailing by 6 points
Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular value.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.