Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were spread. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically gained similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19 with 997 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.