Ohio: Clinton with slim lead in latest Monmouth poll
By Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 21. The sample size was 402 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.2%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
