EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
EmersonEmerson poll results
The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% and Trump 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.