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Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in latest Emerson*Emerson* poll

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Results of a new poll conducted by EmersonEmerson were published. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

EmersonEmerson poll results
43

Clinton

43

Trump

According to the results, both candidates have the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27 with 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 52.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% and Trump 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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