New Vox.Com model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

The Vox.Com model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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