New UPI/CVOTER poll: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck
By UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 21 to August 27 via Internet. A total of 1157 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.9 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently runs at 47.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Trump's poll average is 4.4 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.1 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
