New Reuters poll: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie
By Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Reuters poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 29 with 1404 respondents. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.0 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.
