EmersonEmerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
EmersonEmerson poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.5%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.