New Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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