NBC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 22 to August 28 among 2410 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.