Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Leading indicators model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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