EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
EmersonEmerson poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 25 to August 28 with 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.