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Latest Emerson*Emerson* poll in Pennsylvania: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

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EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

EmersonEmerson poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of interviewees said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 25 to August 28 with 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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