Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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