Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead

The Issue-index model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 31 Trump was still predicted to win 43.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 3.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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