Fair model shows Trump in the lead

The Fair model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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