DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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