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Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new Ipsos/Reuters poll


Ipsos/Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Ipsos/Reuters poll results




According to the results, 40.0% of respondents will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The Internet poll was in the field between August 25 and August 30. The sample size was 1404 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Trump currently achieves 47.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll Trump's poll average is 3.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 4.1 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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